Chrome & Manganese Update: Zero-Tariff Deal Lifts Ngqura Chrome Flows

China's zero-tariff treatment for South African goods is starting to show up at the quayside. Port of Ngqura reports strong growth in China-bound bulk cargoes, chrome among them, giving producers another route alongside Maputo and Richards Bay. Zimbabwe has launched a nationwide compliance sweep of alluvial chrome operations, and India is inviting bids to run a mineral exchange that will trade chromite and manganese. Fresh Chinese spot prices for chrome ore, ferrochrome and manganese ore were not published in the last 48 hours, so this update leans on trade, freight and policy signals. Here is what buyers, sellers and investors need to know.

China's Zero-Tariff Scheme Pushes Chrome Through Ngqura

China's zero-tariff policy for qualifying South African exports has driven higher shipments of chrome, magnetite, iron ore and corn through the Port of Ngqura, according to SMM. The policy took effect on 1 May 2026 and runs for two years to 30 April 2028. It covers South Africa and 19 other African countries that are not classed as least developed (SMM).

Port business strategy manager Xola Mkontwana described "exponential growth" in commodity throughput destined for China since the scheme began. SMM linked the rise in Chinese orders to growing industrial and infrastructure activity in China and to price conditions that suit South African producers. No chrome tonnages were disclosed (SMM).

This matters because chrome export routes are concentrated. In the week to 2 October, Maputo handled 488,800 t of the 642,500 t of chrome ore departures tracked by SMM, while Richards Bay shipped 95,700 t, down 58% on the week (SMM). Ngqura, about 20 km northeast of Gqeberha, gives Eastern Cape and Northern Cape shippers a deep-water alternative when other corridors are congested.

Zimbabwe Launches Nationwide Sweep of Alluvial Chrome Operations

Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines and Mining Development began compliance inspections of alluvial chrome operations and processing plants on 25 September. The first phase covers Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland West and the Midlands, before expanding nationally. Under the Mines and Minerals Act, chromite is a controlled mineral, and alluvial or eluvial extraction needs authorisation from the Mining Affairs Board (SMM).

Permanent Secretary Dr Thomas Utete Wushe said "the exercise is aimed at ensuring chrome mining activities are conducted within the legal framework." Operations that do not comply face suspension and further penalties. SMM noted that Zimbabwe's chrome output fell sharply in the first quarter of 2026 as easy-to-reach alluvial reserves ran down, pushing producers towards costlier hard-rock mining (SMM).

For buyers who source Zimbabwean chrome concentrate or ferrochrome, the sweep adds supply risk from smaller operators in the short term. Suppliers with clear permits and Mining Affairs Board authorisation are likely to be the more reliable counterparties.

India Invites Bids for a Mineral Exchange Covering Chromite and Manganese

India has invited applications to set up a mineral exchange that will initially cover iron ore, chromite, bauxite, limestone and manganese. The deadline is 2 November. Applicants need a minimum net worth of ₹500 million (about US$5.2 million), and registration will be valid for 25 years under the Mineral Exchange Rules, 2026 (SMM).

India is a major buyer of South African and Gabonese manganese ore, and an exchange aimed at transparency could, over time, produce more visible domestic price points for chromite and manganese. Exporters selling into India should watch how the exchange is designed, especially whether imported ore is included and how Indian domestic prices are reported.

Pricing Snapshot

Item	Grade / basis	Price / level	Date
Baltic Dry Index	Main index	3,002 (−68, −2.2%); lowest since late August	6 Oct close
Baltic Dry Index	Main index	3,070 (about −2.5%)	5 Oct close
Capesize index	Baltic Capesize	4,638 (−4%)	6 Oct close
Panamax / Supramax indices	Baltic Panamax / Supramax	2,364 (mostly unchanged) / 1,790 (stable)	6 Oct close
Bunker fuel	Singapore VLSFO	US$910/t (+38)	7 Oct, 12:00 SGT
Bunker fuel	Singapore HSFO / LSMGO	US$794/t (+37) / US$1,306/t (+42)	7 Oct, 12:00 SGT
Bunker fuel	Fujairah VLSFO	US$942/t	6 Oct
EU CBAM certificate	Q3 2026 price	€82.32/tCO₂ (Q2: €75.28)	Q3 2026

Sources: Trading Economics, ENGINE, ENGINE, Carbon Credits. No fresh Chinese port prices for chrome ore, ferrochrome, manganese ore or silicomanganese were published in the last 48 hours; the Baltic Exchange noted that China's Golden Week holiday had limited activity (Hellenic Shipping News/Baltic Exchange). Bunker prices are moving sharply from day to day.

Logistics and Regulatory Highlights

Freight. The Baltic Dry Index fell 2.2% to 3,002 points on Tuesday, its lowest level since late August, after dropping about 2.5% on Monday. Capesizes led the fall, losing 4% on Tuesday, while the Panamax index was mostly unchanged and Supramaxes, the workhorse for much of Africa's chrome and manganese trade, held steady (Trading Economics).

Fuel and security. Singapore bunker prices swung sharply. VLSFO fell US$14 to US$872/t on 6 October (ENGINE), then rose US$38 to US$910/t on 7 October (ENGINE). Supplies of all major grades in Fujairah are "extremely limited" as US-Iran tensions disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Singapore VLSFO lead times are 10–15 days (ENGINE). Houthi forces also struck Saudi Aramco's Rabigh refinery (ENGINE). Owners are likely to keep pricing these fuel risks into ore freight.

Ports and rail. Saldanha's iron ore terminal is in a scheduled 16-day maintenance shutdown from 6 to 21 October, covering dust management and mechanical and electrical refurbishment (Engineering News). On rail, eleven private train operators have signed access deals ahead of open access starting in April 2027. Industry voices warn it will only succeed if investment in track, signalling, traction power and rolling stock keeps pace (Engineering News).

EU rules. The CBAM certificate price for Q3 2026 was set at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up 9.4% from Q2. Importers will start buying certificates in February 2027 for 2026 imports (Carbon Credits). The EU kept the CBAM de minimis threshold at 50 t, but the rules on certificate sales are still not adopted (SMM). India's stainless bar export quotas to the EU are already used up early in the fourth quarter, with out-of-quota volumes facing a 50% tariff (SMM), a reminder that EU trade rules are weighing on stainless demand.

What This Means for African Exporters

Chrome sellers: China's zero-tariff window runs to April 2028, and Ngqura is now a working option for China-bound cargo. Producers relying on Maputo or Richards Bay should price up Ngqura as a backup route.
Manganese sellers: India's planned mineral exchange could change how domestic manganese and chromite prices are discovered. Watch the design as bids close on 2 November.
Buyers: The weaker Baltic Dry Index gives some room on freight, but volatile bunker prices and Gulf supply limits can quickly erase it. Check permits when buying from smaller Zimbabwean chrome suppliers.
Investors: Chinese chrome and manganese prices should resume after the holiday. Key watch points are Chinese restocking, Zimbabwe's enforcement, and how quickly CBAM costs start feeding into EU stainless and ferroalloy demand.

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