Chrome & Manganese Update: South African Ferrochrome Exports Jump as China Cuts Output

South Africa's ferrochrome exports jumped 20% in August, with North American buyers taking almost half of the metal shipped. In China, ferrochrome output fell for a second straight month as loss-making smelters ran fewer furnaces, while chrome ore stocks at Chinese ports edged back up to about 5 million tonnes. In manganese, France moved to become the largest shareholder of Eramet, and dry bulk freight extended its losing run into a seventh session. Here is what buyers, sellers and investors need to know.

South African Ferrochrome Exports Jump 20% as North America Takes Almost Half

South Africa exported 117,180 t of high-carbon ferrochrome in August, up 20.0% from a restated 97,618 t in July and about 45.8% above August 2025, according to SMM. Shipments were still 5.0% below June's 123,310 t. Canada took 26,373 t (up from 1,054 t in July) and the United States 26,029 t (up 128.0%), giving North America a combined 52,401 t, or 44.7% of the total. China took only 20,505 t, down 27.5% on July, while South Korea rose 43.3% to 20,790 t and Japan fell 42.1% to 13,727 t (SMM).

SMM cautions against reading too much into the jump: "A one-month move of this size in Canada points to a small number of large consignments, not a step-change in demand." It also notes that South African goods face a 12.5% Section 301 duty in the US from 24 July, that Merafe guides 2026 ferrochrome production at 25–29% of installed capacity, and that "China is unlikely to absorb more South African metal while its own supply outgrows stainless steel demand" (SMM).

A separate SMM report says cheaper electricity will not be enough on its own. A negotiated tariff of "around 62 cents/kWh" for selected ferrochrome smelters is still subject to regulatory approval, and industry participants say logistics, plant performance, access to capital and policy certainty also matter. SMM adds that if local smelting recovers, some chrome ore could shift from exports to domestic furnaces, depending on utilisation and market conditions (SMM).

China Cuts Ferrochrome Output as Chrome Ore Port Stocks Rebuild

China produced 937,450 t of high-carbon ferrochrome in September, down 1.7% from August and the second monthly decline in a row, according to Mysteel's survey of smelters holding over 95% of domestic capacity. Inner Mongolia produced 729,700 t, or 76.7% of the total. Mysteel linked the fall to widening smelter losses (Mysteel).

SMM's own survey shows a larger 3.17% monthly drop, although output was still up 18.8% year on year and 30.84% higher for January to September. Capacity utilisation slipped to about 56% from about 57.6% in August. Output in Guizhou, Hunan and Guangxi fell 23.33% and accounted for nearly 60% of the national decline. SMM said "the output decline reflects producers choosing to run fewer furnaces rather than losing capacity" and expects southern output "to stay subdued until margins recover" (SMM).

Chrome ore stocks at Chinese ports rose 113,600 t (2.33%) to 4.996 Mt as of 9 October, the first increase after three weekly declines. Tianjin accounted for the entire rebound, rising 141,300 t to 4.4192 Mt, or 88.5% of the national total. Stocks remain 321,800 t below the 11 September peak of 5.318 Mt (SMM). Fewer furnaces and rebuilding stocks are not a supportive mix for ore sellers.

France Moves to Become Eramet's Largest Shareholder

Eramet, which Mining Weekly describes as a nickel, manganese and lithium producer, confirmed a €500 million rights issue planned for the fourth quarter of 2026. The French State, through APE, will subscribe its pro-rata 27.1% share, and its effective voting rights will be capped at 49%. Eramet said the deal is needed "to restore the Group's financial position, strengthen its equity base", after adjusted leverage of 5.5x and gearing of 125% in 2025. No dividends will be paid until adjusted leverage falls below 1.0x (GlobeNewswire).

Reuters, via Mining Weekly, reports that the State's stake could rise from 27% to up to 49% through purchases from the Duval family, currently the largest shareholder with 37%, while staying below 50%. Chair and CEO Christel Bories said: "The idea is not at all to nationalise Eramet." The transaction is expected between Eramet's third-quarter sales publication on 29 October and year-end (Mining Weekly).

For the manganese market, state backing lowers the risk of financial strain at a major supplier, so South African sellers should expect a key competitor to keep producing.

Pricing Snapshot

Commodity/Item	Grade / basis	Price	Date
Silicomanganese	China national 6517, incl. 13% VAT	Yuan 5,675/t (~US$848/t), +Yuan 5 vs 30 Sep	10 Oct (published 12 Oct)
Silicomanganese futures	ZCE November contract, day close	Yuan 5,858/t, +Yuan 60 vs 30 Sep settlement	9 Oct (published 12 Oct)
High-carbon ferrochrome (output)	China, September	937,450 t, −1.7% m/m (Mysteel); −3.17% m/m, ~56% utilisation (SMM)	Published 12–13 Oct
Ferrochrome exports	South Africa, HC FeCr, August	117,180 t, +20.0% m/m	Published 13 Oct
Chrome ore port inventory	China, all ports	4.996 Mt, +113,600 t	As of 9 Oct
Baltic Dry Index	Main index	2,801 (−1.8%)	13 Oct
Baltic Capesize Index	Index	3,994 (−3.7%)	13 Oct
Baltic Panamax Index	Index	2,432 (flat)	13 Oct
Baltic Supramax Index	Index	1,833 (+0.7%)	13 Oct
Bunker fuel	Singapore VLSFO / HSFO / LSMGO, daily change	−US$9/t / −US$8/t / −US$43/t	13 Oct, 17:00 SGT
Bunker fuel	Fujairah VLSFO premium over Singapore	US$74/t	13 Oct

Sources: Mysteel, Mysteel, SMM, SMM, SMM, Trading Economics, ENGINE. Mysteel's daily chrome ore and manganese ore prices for 13–14 October are behind a paywall, and no fresh chrome ore, ferrochrome or manganese ore spot prices were openly published in the 48 hours before this post. There was no new ferrochrome tender or stainless surcharge. Mysteel and SMM use different smelter samples, which explains the gap in their ferrochrome output figures. ENGINE gave changes only, not absolute Singapore bunker prices. Reported BDI levels for 9 and 12 October differ between sources, so treat index levels as indicative.

Logistics and Regulatory Highlights

Freight. The Baltic Dry Index fell about 1.8% to 2,801 on 13 October, its lowest since 20 August and its seventh straight decline. The Capesize index dropped about 3.7% to 3,994, its lowest since late July, after a 4.4% fall on 12 October. Smaller ships held firm: the Supramax index rose 0.4% to 1,821 on 12 October and a further 0.7% to 1,833 on 13 October, while Panamax was flat at 2,432 (Trading Economics). Supramax and Ultramax ships carry many chrome and manganese parcels from southern Africa, so freight on those cargoes is not easing in line with Capesize rates.

Fuel. By 17:00 Singapore time on 13 October, Singapore VLSFO had fallen US$9/t, HSFO US$8/t and LSMGO US$43/t. In Fujairah, VLSFO fell US$20/t to a US$74/t premium over Singapore and US$55/t over Zhoushan, and ENGINE said "VLSFO availability in Fujairah has improved" (ENGINE).

Manganese alloys. China's 6517 silicomanganese price edged up Yuan 5/t to Yuan 5,675/t on 10 October, the first working day after the National Day holiday, and the November futures contract rose Yuan 60/t to Yuan 5,858/t on 9 October (Mysteel).

Policy. South African ferrochrome sold into the US carries a 12.5% Section 301 duty from 24 July (SMM), and the discounted smelter power tariff still awaits regulatory approval (SMM). We found no new export taxes, bans, AGOA, CBAM or mining law changes affecting chrome or manganese in the last 48 hours.

Ports. We found no new port or rail updates for Durban, Richards Bay, Maputo, Ngqura, Saldanha or Lüderitz published in the last 48 hours.

What This Means for African Exporters

Chrome sellers: Chinese smelters are cutting furnaces and port stocks are rebuilding at Tianjin, so expect buyers to bid cautiously. Hold firm on quality premiums, but avoid pushing large uncommitted volumes into China until margins improve. Price Supramax freight at current, firmer levels.
Manganese sellers: Silicomanganese prices held after the holiday, which gives some stability to ore demand. Eramet's recapitalisation points to continued supply from a major competitor, so compete on reliability and logistics rather than expecting supply gaps.
Buyers: Weak Chinese ferrochrome margins and higher chrome ore port stocks give room to negotiate. Capesize freight is falling, but smaller vessel rates are not, so check which ship size your cargo needs before assuming cheaper freight.
Investors: Watch whether August's ferrochrome export jump repeats in September data, the regulatory decision on the ferrochrome power tariff, Eramet's 29 October sales update and whether China's southern smelters restart as margins move.

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