Chrome & Manganese Update: Ngqura Corridor, China Prices

This week's chrome and manganese markets are being pulled in two directions. In South Africa, Transnet has opened the door to private investment in a new manganese export corridor, and ferrochrome smelters are coming back online. In China, the chrome ore price and ferrochrome quotes kept sliding into the National Day holiday, which closes Chinese markets from 1 October. Here is what buyers, sellers and investors need to know.

Transnet's R44bn Ngqura Corridor: What It Means for Manganese Exporters

Last week, Transnet SOC Ltd issued a Request for Qualification (RFQ) for a strategic partner in the Ngqura Manganese Export Corridor (NMEC), a 25-year private sector participation project (CBN). The corridor runs from Hotazel in the Northern Cape to the Port of Ngqura in the Eastern Cape, where a new manganese terminal will be built.

Total investment could reach R44 billion (about US$2.7 billion), including up to R20 billion for rail rehabilitation and maintenance. Initial throughput is about 12 Mtpa, potentially rising to about 16 Mtpa (Mining Indaba). The deal uses two special purpose vehicles: Transnet would hold 51% of the terminal and operations SPV and a private consortium 49%, while the rail-infrastructure SPV would be 100% private. DigitFMS puts the cost at about R16bn for the terminal, R10–20bn for rail and about R4bn for rolling stock, with terminal capacity of 14.7 Mt, expandable to 16 Mt.

The scale of the problem it targets is clear. South Africa exported a record 26.2 Mt of manganese in 2025, up from 22.3 Mt in 2024. China took 68% and India 15.6%, and about 10 Mt (roughly 38%) moved by road (DigitFMS). Transnet describes the current Eastern Cape set-up as fragmented, with several handling points, heavy road haulage and higher costs. More rail capacity could lower delivered costs to China and India, but no completion date has been given.

Chrome and Ferrochrome Prices Slide in China Before the Holiday

Mysteel's 29 September daily described the chrome ore market as weak. South African 40–42% chrome concentrate at Tianjin was cut to 52–53 yuan/dmtu, forward cargo offers stood at US$265/t CIF (mostly on long-term contracts), and port stocks stayed at a high level near 5 million tonnes (Oilchem/Mysteel). High-carbon ferrochrome quotes were cut to about 7,600–8,000 yuan per 50%-basis tonne.

On the production side, China's high-carbon ferrochrome output fell 3.17% month-on-month in September, though it was still up 18.8% year-on-year, and January–September output was up 30.73% (SMM). Southern provinces (Guizhou, Guangxi and Hunan) cut output by 23.33% as coke and power costs rose, leaving production costs above selling prices. Tsingshan and TISCO's October tender prices of 7,795 and 7,595 RMB per 50%-basis tonne, announced on 20 September, continue to drag on the benchmark.

Demand is not helping. The SHFE stainless contract SS2611 settled at RMB 13,695/t on 30 September, down 0.47% on the week, and the traditional September peak season "failed to materialise" (SMM). SMM expects lower ore prices to ease smelter cost pressure.

Smelter Restarts, Freight and Policy: The Outlook for African Ore

This week, OPIS reported that South Africa's ferrochrome industry is restarting mothballed smelters after a power tariff agreement cut electricity costs by 54% to 62 cents/kWh. Glencore-Merafe and Samancor Chrome are bringing furnaces back: the Lion smelter has already restarted, and Boshoek and Wonderkop are expected back by November.

About 4.5 Mtpa of domestic ferrochrome capacity is being restored. That could move an estimated 800,000–1,000,000 t a month of chrome ore away from export markets, mainly China, and into local furnaces. China needs nearly 20 Mt of chrome ore a year, and South Africa supplies more than 80% of its imports. So far, the tightening has not shown up in Tianjin prices.

Pricing Snapshot

Commodity	Grade / basis	Price	Date
Chrome ore	SA 40–42% concentrate, Tianjin spot	52–53 yuan/dmtu (down)	29 Sep
Chrome ore	Forward cargo offer, CIF China	US$265/t	29 Sep
Ferrochrome	China high-carbon, spot quote	7,600–8,000 yuan per 50%-basis t (down)	29 Sep
Manganese ore	Gabon lump Mn 44.5% / Australian lump Mn 45%, China port	40.5 yuan/dmtu (unchanged)	29 Sep
Silicomanganese	China main futures contract	About RMB 5,800/t (peak RMB 6,242 on 4 Sep)	Late Sep
Ferromanganese	Europe Mn78% min	US$1,045/t (unchanged)	29 Sep
Electrolytic manganese	Guangxi 99.7%	17,700 yuan/t (unchanged)	29 Sep
Stainless steel	SHFE SS2611 settlement	RMB 13,695/t (−0.47% w/w)	30 Sep

Sources: Oilchem/Mysteel, Mysteel, SMM, SP Angel. There was no fresh free quote for South African 37% semi-carbonate manganese ore in the last 48 hours.

Logistics and Regulatory Highlights

Freight. The Baltic Dry Index fell 90 points to 3,178 on 29 September, its lowest since 1 September. The Capesize index dropped to 5,103 points (average daily earnings US$42,775), as iron ore futures fell for a third session ahead of China's holiday (Baird Maritime/Reuters). Singapore VLSFO bunkers were US$865.50/t (OilPriceAPI).

Road and ports. South African 50ppm diesel is expected to reach a record of about R33.04/litre from 7 October, and trucks at Durban were still waiting up to 22 hours at the gate (DigitFMS). Cabinet also supported separating the Transnet National Ports Authority into a stand-alone state-owned company, which may bring in a development finance institution as a minority equity partner (Cabinet statement).

Policy. Ghana's President Mahama renewed a pledge to end raw mineral ore exports by 2030, naming manganese. It is not yet law: Section 110 of the Minerals and Mining Bill would only let the minister impose a ban (MyJoyOnline). In India, the INDIA bloc has called a statewide bandh in Odisha, the country's chromite hub, on 8 October over the MMDR Amendment Act 2026 (ThePrint/PTI), and opposition parties are threatening blockades that would halt mineral transport (SMM). In Europe, 30 September is the deadline for verified CBAM emissions reports, and non-EU producers without verification capacity are "increasingly abandoning the European market" (SMM).

What This Means for African Exporters

Chrome sellers: With Tianjin prices falling, port stocks near 5 Mt and Chinese markets closed from 1 October, expect thin trading in the short term. Restarted South African smelters may become a stronger domestic outlet for ore, but the effect on export prices has not appeared yet.
Manganese sellers: The Ngqura corridor is a long-term fix with no completion date. For now, road haulage remains a large part of the route to port, and record diesel prices will push those costs up.
Buyers: Weak Chinese ferrochrome prices and lower tenders give buyers room to negotiate. Softer Capesize rates this week are worth watching when agreeing CIF terms.
Investors: The NMEC RFQ, the TNPA restructuring and the power tariff deal all point to a changing South African logistics and beneficiation picture. In our view, CBAM also matters for ferrochrome and ferromanganese suppliers, because it prices the carbon embedded in steel supply chains.

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