Chrome & Manganese Update: Ferrochrome Benchmark Cut as Chrome Prices Seek a Bottom

Chrome prices are still looking for a floor. Samchrome, Samancor Chrome's distributor, has cut the Q4 European ferrochrome benchmark for a second straight quarter, Chinese ferrochrome quotes and tender prices are lower, and Chinese smelters are now losing money. China's September customs data show South Africa giving up share in both chrome ore and ferrochrome. In manganese, Tasmania's Bell Bay alloy smelter is pausing for lack of ore, and dry bulk freight eased for a third session. Here is what buyers, sellers and investors need to know.

Samchrome Cuts Q4 Benchmark as Chinese Ferrochrome Falls Into Losses

Samchrome FZE has set the Q4 2026 European benchmark ferrochrome price at 152 US cents/lb, down 4 cents (about 2.6%) from 156 cents in Q3 and 9 cents below Q2's 161 cents. It is the second quarterly cut in a row, and the benchmark is now 3 cents below the 155 cents set for both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 (SMM). European stainless producers use it as the quarterly reference for South African-origin ferrochrome.

That market is also weak. On 26 October, high-carbon ferrochrome (50% Cr basis) was 7,525 yuan/t in Inner Mongolia, 7,600 yuan/t in Sichuan and 7,950–8,050 yuan/t in east China. SMM's national average was 7,575 yuan/t, about 33 yuan lower than a week earlier. Tsingshan, TISCO and Beixin Materials each cut their November tender prices by 200 yuan (SMM). On 27 October quotes edged down again; with costs falling more slowly than prices, SMM says smelters are now loss-making and prices may edge lower still (SMM).

Chrome ore is following alloy down. At Tianjin, South African 40–42% concentrate was 49–50 yuan/dmtu, Zimbabwean 48–50% concentrate 53 yuan/dmtu and Turkish 40–42% lump 68 yuan/dmtu. The average CIF futures price for South African 40–42% concentrate fell US$8.5 (3.19%) to US$257.5/t (SMM). Main-port chrome ore stocks rose 211,000 t in the week to 23 October, to 5.1822 Mt (SMM; SMM).

South Africa Cedes Share in China's Chrome Imports

China's chrome ore imports fell 3.3% month on month to about 2.28 Mt in September, the third monthly decline in a row and about 18% below June's 2.79 Mt (SMM). South Africa supplied about 1.74 Mt, down 7.7%, and its share fell to 76.4% from 80.1%. Zimbabwe fell 16.4% to about 178,100 t, while Turkey rose 4.2% to about 153,600 t and other origins rose 88.3% to about 206,800 t. SMM links part of the drop to August's loading lull.

The shift was sharper in alloy. China's high-carbon ferrochrome imports fell 8.8% to 143,764 t. Kazakhstan supplied 88,056 t (61.3%) and Zimbabwe 36,307 t (25.3%), while South Africa sent only 328 t, down from 50,316 t in August. SMM also notes that, as of 13 October, South Africa's proposed chrome ore export permit system and export tax had not been implemented (SMM).

Ore is still moving. Global chrome ore departures rose 9.53% to 550,600 t in the week to 23 October. Maputo fell 5.57% to 373,100 t, its third weekly decline in a row (about 68% of the total). Richards Bay rose 13.66% to 93,200 t, Mersin jumped to 56,200 t and Beira resumed with 12,300 t (SMM).

Bell Bay Manganese Smelter Pauses as New Australian Supply Advances

Liberty Bell Bay, the manganese alloy smelter in northern Tasmania formerly known as TEMCO, is moving to "limited operations" because of continuing ore supply problems (ferro-alloys.com). It lost its main ore supply after Tropical Cyclone Megan damaged South32's GEMCO infrastructure last year, and price volatility and US tariffs have added pressure. About 253 full-time staff and 30 contractors are affected, and the pause is likely to last for the foreseeable future.

New supply is moving forward elsewhere. Element 25 says early site works at its Butcherbird Expansion Project in Western Australia, which targets 1.1 Mtpa of manganese concentrate, are materially complete. Main construction is scheduled to start in Q4 2026 and finish in Q1 2027 (ferro-alloys.com). In Timor-Leste, Estrella Resources has received export authorisation for a bulk sample of about 27,000 t of manganese from Ira Miri, to be shipped via Tenu; binding sales terms are still being finalised (ferro-alloys.com).

Fresh Chinese manganese ore and silicomanganese prices were published by Mysteel on 27 and 28 October, but the figures are behind a paywall, so we have not quoted them (Mysteel).

Pricing Snapshot

Commodity/Item	Grade / basis	Price	Date
European ferrochrome benchmark	Samchrome, Q4 2026	152 US c/lb (−4c q/q)	Reported 27 Oct
High-carbon ferrochrome	China national average, 50% Cr	7,575 yuan/t (−33 w/w)	26 Oct
High-carbon ferrochrome	Inner Mongolia / Sichuan / east China, 50% Cr	7,525 / 7,600 / 7,950–8,050 yuan/t	26 Oct
High-carbon ferrochrome tenders	Tsingshan, TISCO, Beixin, November	Cut by 200 yuan	26 Oct
Chrome ore	SA 40–42% conc., Tianjin port	49–50 yuan/dmtu	26 Oct
Chrome ore	Zimbabwe 48–50% conc. / Turkey 40–42% lump, Tianjin	53 / 68 yuan/dmtu	26 Oct
Chrome ore CIF futures	SA 40–42% conc., average	US$257.5/t (−US$8.5)	26 Oct
Chrome ore port stocks	China main ports	5.1822 Mt (+211,000 t w/w)	23 Oct
Manganese ore / silicomanganese	China spot	Not publicly available in window	27–28 Oct
Baltic Dry Index	Main index	2,603 (−25)	27 Oct
Baltic Dry Index	Main index	2,628 (−32)	26 Oct
Baltic Capesize Index	Index	3,702 (−0.6%)	27 Oct
Baltic Capesize Index	Index / average daily earnings	3,726 (−1.71%) / US$30,292	26 Oct
Baltic Panamax / Supramax	Index	2,021 (−2.6%) / 1,883 (−0.3%)	27 Oct
Bunker fuel	Durban VLSFO / LSMGO / HSFO, daily change	+US$4/t / +US$65/t / +US$31/t	27 Oct, 09:00 GMT
Brent crude	ICE front month	US$115.68/bbl (+US$1.20)	27 Oct, 09:00 GMT

Sources: SMM, SMM, SMM, Hellenic Shipping News, Hellenic Shipping News, ENGINE. The Samchrome benchmark was announced in a press release dated 2 October and reported by SMM on 27 October. Chinese chrome ore port prices are per dry metric tonne unit. Mysteel's manganese ore prices for 27–28 October were behind a paywall, so we have not repeated older assessments. Durban bunker figures are daily changes, not absolute prices.

Logistics and Regulatory Highlights

Freight. The Baltic Dry Index fell 32 points (1.23%) to 2,628 on 26 October as the Capesize index dropped 1.71% to 3,726 and average Capesize earnings fell US$585 to US$30,292/day. The Panamax index fell to 2,075, its lowest since 30 July (Hellenic Shipping News). On 27 October the index slipped a further 25 points to 2,603, a third straight decline and its lowest since 20 October. Capesize fell 0.6% to 3,702, Panamax 2.6% to 2,021 and Supramax 0.3% to 1,883 (Hellenic Shipping News).

Fuel. Durban bunker prices rose on 27 October: VLSFO by US$4/t, LSMGO by US$65/t and HSFO by US$31/t. Brent rose US$1.20 to US$115.68/bbl, supported by Middle East supply concerns, with Strait of Hormuz flows at about 60% of normal (ENGINE).

Ports and roads. A Daily Maverick and Forbidden Stories investigation into the truck route from South Africa via Komatipoort to the Port of Maputo reports illegal roadside dumping of chrome cargo near the Komati River. Customs data cited in the article show 2.6 Mt of chromite and ferrochrome, worth more than €800 million, left Maputo between January 2025 and May 2026 (Daily Maverick). For a corridor that carries about two-thirds of weekly global chrome ore departures (SMM), closer environmental and enforcement scrutiny is a real risk for exporters.

Policy. South Africa's proposed chrome ore export permits and export tax had still not been implemented as of 13 October, according to SMM (SMM). We found no new AGOA, CBAM or mining law decisions affecting chrome or manganese published in the last 48 hours.

What This Means for African Exporters

Chrome sellers: Lower ferrochrome tenders, smelter losses and rising Chinese port stocks point to more pressure on ore prices in the short term. Turkey and other secondary origins are gaining share in China, so consistent grades and reliable delivery matter more.
Manganese sellers: Bell Bay's pause removes one alloy buyer for now, while Butcherbird and smaller new sources add competition over time.
Buyers: A falling European benchmark and soft Chinese quotes give buyers more room to negotiate. Freight is easing, but Durban bunker prices are still moving by tens of dollars a day, so build fuel adjustments into contracts.
Investors: Two straight benchmark cuts and Chinese smelter losses make the pace of South African ferrochrome restarts harder to call. Scrutiny of the Maputo truck corridor is a logistics and reputational risk worth tracking.

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